Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 10.313853 12.098478 14.050736 16.338429 18.938884 21.795963 25.165345
2024-12-29 7.561606 9.989684 12.915704 16.670449 21.326482 26.874007 33.943475
2025-01-05 5.760072 8.439568 11.947422 16.802466 23.262870 31.469780 42.573957
2025-01-12 4.501031 7.235647 11.087052 16.776585 24.810944 35.571904 50.856558
2025-01-19 3.620393 6.333450 10.413911 16.797901 26.287734 39.582124 59.248384
2025-01-26 3.248553 6.101529 10.632863 18.061947 29.569612 46.273962 71.781899
2025-02-02 2.857303 5.746974 10.581191 18.862471 32.188147 52.169800 83.571371
2025-02-09 2.528036 5.425839 10.515602 19.595726 34.723618 58.082252 95.746063
2025-02-16 2.141743 4.917825 10.044180 19.573699 36.012636 62.143574 105.354497
2025-02-23 1.758228 4.331366 9.334354 19.031112 36.352423 64.690678 112.729636
2025-03-02 1.421481 3.764260 8.564099 18.264042 36.198817 66.379227 118.788012
2025-03-09 1.214789 3.433693 8.196890 18.183099 37.208944 70.011758 128.158885
2025-03-16 1.008970 3.064835 7.708486 17.836889 37.759204 72.998158 136.824690
2025-03-23 0.926125 2.981127 7.814796 18.690785 40.621473 80.186996 153.044597
2025-03-30 0.815977 2.798974 7.672854 19.011363 42.485959 85.728715 166.750110
2025-04-06 0.703882 2.581554 7.412475 19.043190 43.778350 90.312751 179.032763
2025-04-13 0.609157 2.387824 7.174238 19.087927 45.087752 94.994039 191.727256
2025-04-20 0.592397 2.430253 7.528675 20.505499 49.316279 105.357797 215.170188
2025-04-27 0.551936 2.385858 7.652708 21.400635 52.517602 113.949414 235.787815
2025-05-04 0.511669 2.331396 7.741168 22.218595 55.612679 122.501473 256.730854
2025-05-11 0.445139 2.164189 7.494363 22.194397 56.879099 127.560936 271.391477
2025-05-18 0.369787 1.937697 7.038198 21.589975 56.805260 129.954385 281.112619
2025-05-25 0.299743 1.703974 6.513068 20.734913 56.077633 130.968093 288.208726